Transatlantic Politics

On March 25 (EU’s midlife-crisis birthday) Belarus commemorates one year since the failed attempt to organize free elections and let the opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkievich win the presidency. With Alexander Lukasenka reelected for the 3d time, Belarus is still "the last dictatorship in Europe"as the Bush administration likes to call it. But a small and brave resistance movement, especially among the youngsters is still not giving up hope. This Sunday, a demonstration will take place in Minsk, to celebrate the "unofficial Independence Day of Belarus". A group of young journalists from Berlin will follow the event closely and report on it live on the following blog:
http://redaktion-march25.blogspot.com

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An EU member from January 1st, Bulgaria is preparing now for their first elections for the European Parliament, to be held on May 20. Here is what their right-wing party leader and former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov is warning about:

"We need MEPs who know how to read and understand Bulgaria’s interests, unlike what we have witnessed for the last six years. We need MEPs, who will not turn Bulgaria into Russia’s Trojan horse in the European Parliament. "

Bulgaria’s socialist government has tempered down the pro-NATO, pro-EU orientation of the previous leadership under the former king Simeon. Mafia gangs with strong connections to the Russian ones are still a huge problem for a largely unreformed justice system, where no high ranking official has yet been put on trial for corruption and/or organized crime. For instance, the most famous weapon dealer in the world, Viktor Bout, a former (or still?) KGB operative has had most of his weapon-deliveries to Africa made via Bulgaria.

Viktor Bout’s name is regularly linked with Bulgaria in connection with the deals he makes with Bulgaria-manufactured weapons. There was significant space devoted to Mr Bout in the 2000 UN Security Council report in connection with suspicions that he had supplied weapons for the Angolan grouping UNITA instead of for the officially declared end client - Togo. In the same report, Bulgaria was accused that it did not adhere to UN-imposed embargo resolutions. Later, Bulgaria was exonerated of these allegations. The investigation, however, showed that counterfeit documents were used, which declared an end client. These documents were made from original copies of a legal arms shipment to Togo.

With all the pressure from the EU to reform and "put the mafia bosses behind bars", as Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini was saying  yesterday in Sofia, Bulgaria seems to be counting on a powerful friend in the East much more than on the bureaucrats in Brussels. A Trojan horse for Russia?On the energy field, this might already be happening..A few days ago, Russia, Bulgaria and Greece (what a surprise..) signed a pipeline-agreement that basically blows up the recent efforts of the EU to get a strategy implemented that will reduce its dependency on Russia. But since Turkey’s deal with Georgia and Azerbaijan bypasses Russia and Greece signed a deal for a pipeline with Turkey, the Kremlin thought to reactivate its good comrades in Bulgaria and try to get the pipeline done before the Turks. Construction will begin next year and is scheduled to last 3 years. The Russian companies Rosneft, Transneft, and Gazprom will share a 51-percent stake in the venture, leaving Greece and Bulgaria with 24.5 percent each. The pipeline project’s estimated cost is $1.2 billion.
Russia has no interest whatsoever in a common EU energy policy that would reduce its dependency and thus promotes one-to-one-deals-you-can’t-refuse with its member countries. Most famous case: former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, a buddy-buddy of Putin signed a pipeline deal just days before the 2005 German elections (when Angela Merkel got elected), linking Northern Germany directly to Russia through a pipeline under the Baltic Sea. Three months later, Schroeder accepted a job with the Gazprom..

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The Bush administration is slowly recognizing that without Turkey’s full commitment and leadership, there cannot be any real perspective for peace in the Middle East. Yesterday, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee and presented the new "Shared Vision" between the US and Turkey. The new policy suggest a stronger partnership, probably more lobbying in Brussels to get 2014 as an EU accession date, promoted already both by the Turkish government and business groups are already promoting as an accession target date. Energy transport and security is also a key-component in the US-Turkey relationship, and is becoming increasingly important to the EU.

Secretary Rice has instructed me to shift the focus of the U.S.-Turkey relationship from one of simply managing challenges to one where the United States and Turkey are working cooperatively to advance a broad range of issues, putting in action our shared interests and common values. Our shared interests include stability and freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan, democratic reform in the broader Middle East, energy security across Eurasia, and Turkey’s deeper anchoring in Europe.

On the energy security issue, the plan is to further invest in the already existing pipelines that link Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and expand this network to Europe, for instance through the Nabucco natural gas pipeline that would ultimately end in Austria (maybe that will melt down their anti-Turkish feelings a little bit) and the emerging Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline. There are also negotiations for gas exports from Iraq to Europe via Turkey.

As these natural gas projects develop, they will emerge as a Southern Corridor of infrastructure that will offer fair and transparent competition to Gazprom’s massive network of gas pipelines that is in place - and expanding - in Northern Europe. The Southern Corridor can change Eurasia’s strategic map by offering Europe its best hope for large volumes of natural gas supplies that will allow diversification away from a deepening reliance on one supplier or network. Turkey, if it continues to act as a partner with its neighbors, including by reaching a commercially attractive gas transit agreement with Azerbaijan, will be the centerpiece of this grand strategic effort.

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EU-freshman Romania has a great record on  corrupt politics, oligarch-style governing and no respect for the rule of law. As if the 45 years of communism hadn’t been bad enough, 12 years of post-communist ruling under apparatchik Ion Iliescu hampered reforms, perpetuated an oligarch-style ruling and maintained a justice system functioning as an enforcer of political commandos, with no perspective whatsoever to become a truly independent one.

Up until 1999, Romania didn’t even have a clear European perspective. The Helsinki Summit in December 1999 which  granted Romania the status of a candidate country was merely due to pressure from the US after the Romanian President Emil Constantinescu (elected 1996 and facing serious sabotage-attempts by Iliescu, who came back to power in 2000) granted overflight rights to NATO aircrafts in the Kosovo war,

2004 marked a change of government many had already given up hope for. Although the parliamentary elections were won by the same post-communist party (PSD) by a narrow margin, the presidential ones shifted completly. Instead of Iliescu’s Prime Minister and heir, Adrian Nastase and in spite of some fraud attempts, the opposition leader Traian Basescu became the first "orange" president, with a clear anti-corruption agenda, promising to get Romania into the EU by 2007. By then, this was seen as an optimist view, the new Enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn being very tough on corruption and stating clearly that he "would not hesitate" to postpone Romania’s accession by one year. He was exactly the opposite of  his predecessor, Gunther Verheugen, whose ties to the PM  and presidential wannabe Nastase even made him step over his attributions as an impartial EU commissioner: just days before election day, Verheugen predicted that Geoana (by then Foreign Minister) will be the next Prime Minister, thus suggesting that Nastase will win the presidential elections. He even announced an earlier than expected closing of accession negotiations, despite lingering problems in the field of Justice and Home Affairs (high level corruption, lack of independence and accountability), as well as Competition (with state aides being attributed by party loyalty).

The reform of the Justice system and the fight against corruption, especially first cases of high-level corruption, became the main focus of Basescu’s mandate and subsequently of his government, led by  PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu. A bold reformist Justice Minister, Monica Macovei, not politically affiliated, soon became the champion of the reforms,  broadly acclaimed by the European Commission and member states. Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini even stated that "A big part of the success of Romanian accession will have been achieved thanks to Ms. Macovei". The first "big cases" started with former PM Adrian Nastase and his wife, both on trial for corruption, but continued with members of the current government, such as former vice-PM George Copos or former Economy Minister Codrut Seres.

Even if Romania is a EU member since Jan 1st, it still has to carry out the judicial reforms and has a set of "benchmarks" in this regard. The first deadline is soon coming up, March 31st, when Romania must submit to the European Commission a report on its progress. But despite Mrs. Macovei’s commitment, the Parliament has subsequently tried to water down her projects and even voted a motion against her, asking for her resignation. Macovei warned as early as the beginning of January that after EU-accession, Romania’s clampdown on corruption is slowing down, her own PM showing "the wish of non-involvement". A key-agency for investigating conflicts of interests, one of the 4 benchmarks due this year, is being constantly delayed in the Romanian Parliament, whose main occupation right now is to find ways to impeach the President. With very low approval rates in the polls and in a constant open war with the President,  the PM has decided to postpone until autumn the elections for the European Parliament scheduled for May 13. The President himself makes no secret out of his non-approval towards the Premier, engaging in a true media-war in this respect.

For investors and businessmen, this looks rather grim: after the European elections in autumn follow the parliamentary ones in spring 2008 and then the presidential ones in 2009. Time for reforms and clampdown on corruption and red tape? Rather unlikely.

When visiting Bucharest yesterday, US deputy assistant secretary of Commerce Paul Dyck encouraged the Romanian government to continue the reforms. Here are the US’ recommendations:

• First, Romania must continue to exert significant efforts to eradicate corruption’s influence in the economy. This means corrupt officials, at all levels, must be held accountable for their actions.

• Second, intellectual property rights must be enforced and protected. Not only should counterfeit goods be seized, but their producers and distributors must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Only then, will there be a real deterrent to further IPR infringements.

• Third, Romania’s judicial system must be modernized so that judges and prosecutors understand not only the necessity of protecting intellectual property rights, but also of enforcing contracts and operating in a timely and efficient manner. Court decisions must be made in a transparently and in a reasonable amount of time.

• Finally, government decisions, including procurements, should be made in a transparent manner. Laws and regulations should be drafted so that companies and effected parties have adequate opportunity to comment and provide input. 

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There is a good analysis on Eastern Europe in the current Economist edition. Bottom line:

"Overheating economies, slow reform and messy politics make a grim mixture"

Common problems: Governments and politicians totally  lack accountability, there is no real desire to further reform the countries now that they joined the EU, they have no strategy for clever economic and social development (similar to Ireland, for instance). And yet, all 10 former communist countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 have "surprising" GDP growth: the Baltics even over 10%. But politics seem to get in the way of the economic boom:

"The underlying failing is weak and indecisive government across the region, which needs years of good government if it is to catch up. Romania, the second-largest east European EU member, is paralysed by a political feud between the prime minister and president. As a by-product, the upper house of parliament has voted to dismiss the justice minister, Monica Macovei. In sunny economic weather, such political shenanigans would be mere details. In a chillier climate, they make east Europe’s future more worrying."

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