Again, it is Kiev that gets all the headlines. But the similarities to Bucharest are there. Just like in November-December 2004, when both countries held elections and the orange opposition candidate won the presidency. It was weeks of protests in the cold winter streets of Ukraine for Viktor Yushchenko who managed to reverse the framed first result and topple Viktor Yanukovich, Kremlin's protegee. It was a massive turnout, media reports on fraud and the look at the neighboring Ukraine that got Traian Basescu into power, although the parliamentary elections were won by the post-communist Socialist Party (former president Iliescu being a Kremlin-fan trained in Moscow when he was young). Like in Ukraine, Basescu's allience was orange and formed of 2 parties - the Democrats (Basescu's party) and the Liberals (Premier Calin Popescu Tariceanu's party). Like in Ukraine, where the Premier Julia Timoshenko didn't play the same game with the President, the Romanian Premier demonized the President and preferred deals with the post-communist and corrupt Opposition, sabotaging and ultimately kicking out the Democrats from the governing coalition. Unlike Ukraine, the Romanian president has neither the right to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections nor to fire the Premier. Even if Tariceanu is not a Kremlin protegee like the current Ukrainian Premier Yanukovich who organized the counterrevolution in Kiev, ignoring Yushchenko's constitutional right, the Romanian Premier and his new cabinet formed just of Liberals and members of the tiny Hungarian Party plays now exclusively by the book of the Socialist opposition who voted unanimously in favor of this new "ultra-minority" government. The numbers prove it: representing just 20% of the current Parliament, the current cabinet has yet obtained almost 80% of the votes. Corruption, Romania's nr.1 problem before accession to the EU and the reason for the unprecedented "post-accession monitoring" from the EU Commission, is no longer a priority for the current government. After sacking the only true reformist and dedicated minister in the cabinet, Monica Macovei, the Premier stated that Romania's main objectives are promoting a better image abroad and withdrawing the troops from Iraq. The new Justice Minister, a young lawyer with the appropriate "political friends" has already made clear that "my concern lies in the needs of the citizen, not in getting a good report from the EU". What he seems to ignore is the fact that a bad report from the EU will affect precisely the citizen, as the Romanian verdicts would no longer be recognized in the EU, with a huge negative impact on the economy and on property rights.
Like in Ukraine, everything evolves around energy. The Premier, the new Defense Minister and the new Transport Minister are all close friends of the main financing patron of the Liberals, the CEO of a Romanian oil company called Rompetrol. He's charged for money laundry, insider trading, fraud, tax evasion and manipulating the stock exchange. The Premier tried several times to intervene in favor of his friend - by calling the Attorney General, by arranging a meeting with Patriciu and Justice Minister Macovei, even by writing a memo to the President asking him to talk to the prosecutors about his case. The former Energy Minister is being investigated for giving insider information on strategic privatizations. The new Communication minister appointed by the Premier on Monday is also under investigation in this case. The President himself has been accused, on the other hand, of trying to influence the energy distributors in dropping the price for certain industry sectors. Just like in Ukraine, where former premier Julia Timoshenko accused the President of cutting a bad deal with Gazprom after the natural gas crisis in the winter of 2005.
The current situation in Ukraine looks like a gordian node. The Economist sums it up perfectly. "Early elections? Maybe." The following analysis fits perfectly to Romania as well:
The coalition's leaders are now openly bent on amassing a majority big enough to override the presidential veto and strip Mr Yushchenko of his residual powers. It sounds like the sort of constitutional fine-tuning to be expected in a young democracy. In Ukraine, alas, disputes that may seem like issues of principle are often disguised struggles for wealth. Politicians' attitudes to any given office depend on their prospects of occupying it. Beyond the Rada, the country is worryingly divided between Yanukovich supporters in the east and south, and those mostly in Kiev and the west who want a more enlightened government.
It seems like the EU membership has changed only the surface and the language of the Romanian politicians. Deep down, the same post-Soviet deals are still being made. And with the EU focusing on climate change and the famous Constitution, what is happening in Romania doesn't seem to bother too many. Ukraine even less.
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Apr 4th, 2007
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