Transatlantic Politics

According to an FT-poll , the Brits, Germans, Italians and Spaniards are even more Socialist than the French - or maybe they just wish them "well."  All of these groups support Mrs. Segolene Royal from Socialist Party over the current front-runner from the center-right, Nicolas Sarkozy:

Sixteen per cent of respondents in Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK considered that Ms Royal would be the best president for France, with 7 per cent opting for Nicolas Sarkozy, the contender from the centre-right UMP party.

Ms Royal proved most popular in Spain and Italy, which have left-wing governments. Ms Royal has made a point of courting the support of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s socialist prime minister, who is to attend her final campaign rally in Toulouse on Thursday. The first round of voting will be held on Sunday.

Separately, 22 per cent of French respondents in the poll considered Ms Royal to be the best president just behind Mr Sarkozy, with 23 per cent.

 Let's see where the two stand on the issues:

Segolene Royal - "We need justice and order"

• boost minimum wage to 1500 Euro a month, a 19.6% increase, but promising not to raise taxes…
• abolish the new flexible job contract for small firms
• create 500,000 subsidised jobs for young graduates
• pay the entire salary and social charges for unskilled young people to work for a year in small businesses
• big increase in spending on universities, research and innovation
• the construction of 120,000 social housing units a year

 Nicolas Sarkozy - "Get France back to work" (not a bad idea at all)

• exempt time worked over 35 hours a week from social charges and income tax
• give universities more autonomy, letting them compete to recruit staff and students
• break the big five unions' statutory stranglehold on representation in companies
• introduce a law that will guarantee “minimum service” on public transport during strikes
• reform the special pension regimes for railway drivers and other state employees that enable them to retire early on full pension.

According to The Economist, Sarkozy seems to be the only chance of reform France has left:

Mr Sarkozy is the only candidate who seems both to have understood the urgency of reform and to have the abrasiveness to stand a chance of carrying it out. A political outsider, who fought his way to the top of the Gaullist party through hard work and cunning, he remains fearless in the face of opposition. Anticipating resistance, his advisers are already working on a draft of the law on minimum service, so as to curb the effectiveness of strikes.

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German Defense minister Franz Josef Jung pleaded for the US anti-missile defense shield Poland and the Czech Republic agreed to place on their territory, This decision caused sharp criticism from Russia and subsequently made the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, to propose "debating" and maybe limiting the national sovereignty of member states in this regard. But Jung expressed the view that facing new threats form "rogue states" (without naming them), the EU should act preventively, thus justifying the setting up of this defense shield: 

Mr Jung also alluded to Iran's announcement that it can develop uranium on an industrial scale. "Precisely these latest developments also confirm that such protection makes sense",Mr Jung said this week.

"Timely precautions must be taken against the foreseeable increase of the range of offensive missiles of certain problem states, even if it concerns long-term developments," he added.

Jung stressed the fact that the only way to "soothe" Russia's "worries" is to have a common voice within NATO and to back the argument that the shield is meant to PROTECT, not to ATTACK:

"I think it is good that in NATO, as with the NATO-Russia council, we are working together to assuage possible doubts".

Although Jung has voiced support for the US scheme, it is not a view that is universally backed within the German cabinet.

But he did insist it was important for the West "to work on a partnership basis with Russia" on the matter, he added.

Russia should be convinced of the argument so as "to reach an agreement for the protection of populations, for European populations in particular," he said.

Jung also told the European deputies that every possible diplomatic effort should be made "to prevent Iran from equipping itself with nuclear arms".

He added: "It is vital for world peace. The United States, Russia, Europe and China must work together."

President Putin had been very clear on one point, he continued. "It is also in Russia's interests that Iran does not possess atomic weapons."

On April 19, at NATO's Brussels headquarters, the 26 NATO allies — including 21 EU member states — will discuss the anti-missile system in the North Atlantic Council and then with Russia at a NATO-Russia meeting.

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Europol released its FIRST TERRORISM REPORT EVER this week, stating shocking news:

Terrorism is not a new phenomenon in the EU. Nevertheless, in the twenty-first century, the threat posed by terrorism to Member States is more serious than ever.

 It's amazing..it took the EU almost 6 years since 9/11, 3 since the Madrid bombings and 2 since the London Tube attacks to come up with a paper on terorism.

It indicates that 498 attacks were carried out by Islamist, separatist, left-wing and anarchist terrorist groups in eleven Member States in 2006. A total of 706 individuals suspected of terrorism offences were arrested in 15 Member States in 2006. This report for the first time collates all statistical data on the terrorist attacks and plots in the EU as well as provides details on the where, whom and how of terrorist activities. 

Yey! way to go! better later than never…

The small number of suspects arrested for dissemination of propaganda may indicate the lack of legal basis and difficulty in investigating these types of crimes. The number of acquittals may reflect legal challenges Member States face in terrorism trials such as a lack of capacity in both the investigation and prosecution stage to deal with the often huge amount of paper and electronic evidence, as well as the fact that thecross-border nature of the crime requires costly and time-consuming travel and cooperation.

 Hot spots for home-grown or imported terrorists: France,  Spain and UK. They "are most severely affected by terrorism
as concluded from the number of terrorist attacks and arrested suspects as well as the average penalties."

At the other end, terrorism-free (or at least so far) countries are: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Slovakia and Slovenia.

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Jerry Seinfeld was in Knoxville, Tennessee on Friday and made some funny remarks about suicide bombers: 

"Is it all that sand and no beach that makes the people in the Middle East become suicide bombers? You walk and walk with your little umbrella "How much further is this? I can't take the heat anymore, I think I'll blow myself up!"

My favorite suicide bomber is the guy who accidentally blows himself up without injuring anyone else around him. You know, that Jihadi-Coyote type of guy…

There's nothing new about this strategy, you have to remember the Kamikaze-pilots in WW2. I always wondered about the Kamikaze-pilot program. Because if you've got a bunch of pilots in your squad shooting down enemy planes without getting shot down themselves, I think you ought to hold on to them. But Wang over here, who wrecked three sets of landing gears this week, and has got to left hands - well now, there is a special program for him.."You might want to check out our kamikaze-program.."

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Again, it is Kiev that gets all the headlines. But the similarities to Bucharest are there. Just like in November-December 2004, when both countries held elections and the orange opposition candidate won the presidency. It was weeks of protests in the cold winter streets of Ukraine for Viktor Yushchenko who managed to reverse the framed first result and topple Viktor Yanukovich, Kremlin's protegee. It was a massive turnout, media reports on fraud and the look at the neighboring Ukraine that got Traian Basescu into power, although the parliamentary elections were won by the post-communist Socialist Party (former president Iliescu being a Kremlin-fan trained in Moscow when he was young). Like in Ukraine, Basescu's allience was orange and formed of 2 parties - the Democrats (Basescu's party) and the Liberals (Premier Calin Popescu Tariceanu's party). Like in Ukraine, where the Premier Julia Timoshenko didn't play the same game with the President, the Romanian Premier demonized the President and preferred deals with the post-communist and corrupt Opposition, sabotaging and ultimately kicking out the Democrats from the governing coalition. Unlike Ukraine, the Romanian president has neither the right to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections nor to fire the Premier. Even if Tariceanu is not a Kremlin protegee like the current Ukrainian Premier Yanukovich who organized the counterrevolution in Kiev, ignoring Yushchenko's constitutional right, the Romanian Premier and his new cabinet formed just of Liberals and members of the tiny Hungarian Party plays now exclusively by the book of the Socialist opposition who voted unanimously in favor of this new "ultra-minority" government. The numbers prove it: representing just 20% of the current Parliament, the current cabinet has yet obtained almost 80% of the votes. Corruption, Romania's nr.1 problem before accession to the EU and the reason for the unprecedented "post-accession monitoring" from the EU Commission, is no longer a priority for the current government. After sacking the only true reformist and dedicated minister in the cabinet, Monica Macovei, the Premier stated that Romania's main objectives are promoting a better image abroad and withdrawing the troops from Iraq. The new Justice Minister, a young lawyer with the appropriate "political friends" has already made clear that "my concern lies in the needs of the citizen, not in getting a good report from the EU". What he seems to ignore is the fact that a bad report from the EU will affect precisely the citizen, as the Romanian verdicts would no longer be recognized in the EU, with a huge negative impact on the economy and on property rights.

Like in Ukraine, everything evolves around energy. The Premier, the new Defense Minister and the new Transport Minister are all close friends of the main financing patron of the Liberals, the CEO of a Romanian oil company called Rompetrol. He's charged for money laundry, insider trading, fraud, tax evasion and manipulating the stock exchange. The Premier tried several times to intervene in favor of his friend - by calling the Attorney General, by arranging a meeting with Patriciu and Justice Minister Macovei, even by writing a memo to the President asking him to talk to the prosecutors about his case. The former Energy Minister is being investigated for giving insider information on strategic privatizations. The new Communication minister appointed by the Premier on Monday is also under investigation in this case. The President himself has been accused, on the other hand, of trying to influence the energy distributors in dropping the price for certain industry sectors. Just like in Ukraine, where former premier Julia Timoshenko accused the President of cutting a bad deal with Gazprom after the natural gas crisis in the winter of 2005.

The current situation in Ukraine looks like a gordian node. The Economist sums it up perfectly. "Early elections? Maybe." The following analysis fits perfectly to Romania as well:

The coalition's leaders are now openly bent on amassing a majority big enough to override the presidential veto and strip Mr Yushchenko of his residual powers. It sounds like the sort of constitutional fine-tuning to be expected in a young democracy. In Ukraine, alas, disputes that may seem like issues of principle are often disguised struggles for wealth. Politicians' attitudes to any given office depend on their prospects of occupying it. Beyond the Rada, the country is worryingly divided between Yanukovich supporters in the east and south, and those mostly in Kiev and the west who want a more enlightened government.

 It seems like the EU membership has changed only the surface and the language of the Romanian politicians. Deep down, the same post-Soviet deals are still being made. And with the EU focusing on climate change and the famous Constitution, what is happening in Romania doesn't seem to bother too many. Ukraine even less.

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