Transatlantic Politics

"YES" (DA) was the Romanian Orange elections slogan in 2004. Now President Basescu’s supporters have to say "NO" (Nu).

For the first time, Romanians voted today in a referendum whether to impeach the president on  alleged anti-constitutional gestures or not. 75% of the voters backed Basescu. Although the turnout was not as great as expected - 48% - the results show a clear option: NO to the impeachment procedure, seen as a reaction of a corrupt and antireformist parliamentary majority to the president's bold moves against corruption and push for openness and reforms.

The new government under the same Premier who used to be Basescu's ally in the DA-Alliance is now his fiercest fiend. Calin Popescu Tariceanu chose to back down on the reforms pushed forward before Romania's accession to the European Union, in January this year. He and the members of  the new minority government, backed by the socialist (post-communist) opposition are championing in doublespeak, a skill trained by Romanian politicians in over 45 years of communism.

 “We will continue and accelerate the fight against corruption,” promised the new justice minister, Tudor Chiuariu, when he took office one month ago. But his first move was to request the dismissal of a top anticorruption prosecutor who was investigating senior members and supporters of the ruling coalition. The reasoning was that these probes were proving fruitless. “A prosecutor should by evaluated by the number of cases he has won. Until now, there have been no verdicts, which mean the cases are not solid enough,” the minister argued. He omitted to mention the fact that prosecutors didn't get the chance yet to present the probes in a trial of high level corruption, due to the delays and procedural loopholes that allow the defendant to postpone the actual trial.

Still, a good sign was the reaction of  several prosecutors and magistrates who openly protested against Chiuariu's measure. A German expert named this "the Macovei effect" - named after Chiuariu's predecessor, Monica Macovei, broadly appreciated by the EU and US for shaking up the judiciary and granting independence to the magistrates. Due to the "Macovei effect", Romania has now a critical magistracy, aware and openly opposing to any brutal interventions like the Chiuariu incident. The same day Chiuariu asked the interim president - an old-guard communist, Nicolae Vacaroiu - to approve the dismissal of the anti-corruption prosecutor, the Parliament passed a law establishing a new control body to verify the assets and conflicts of interests of politicians and civil servants.

That was a key condition for EU membership; failure to get it going would have triggered a "safeguard clause" from Brussels. But the newborn “Integrity Agency” has a major weakness: it is not an independent body, but subordinated to the very same parliament it is supposed to investigate.

Nonetheless Tariceanu  hailed the new body as a great success, proving that Chiuariu's negotiating skills as opposed to his predecessor's uncompromising style. Still, media and foreign observers concentrated their attention on Chiuariu's move regarding the anti-corruption prosecutor. Especially since he was investigating some cases regarding current government members or allies from the Socialist Party.

A strong signal came on Wednesday, when 9 foreign diplomats participated to the hearings of the High Council of Magistracy, where the fate of the anticorruption prosecutor was to be decided. "The European Commission and the EU Member States follow closely the reform of the justice system and the fight against corruption in Romania. That it is why they attended today's meeting of the High Council of Magistracy, which was a public one", stated the EU Representation in Bucharest. Opposition spokesman Cristian Diaconescu said "It is an unprecedented embarrasment. Romania has become a country with limited sovereignty, under a stronger monitoring than Kosovo."

The Council ruled to postpone the decision and requested an evaluation over the activity of the prosecutor. Chiuariu backed down and said he will respect the Council's decision, one way or the other.

Romanians can only hope that with Basescu's return to the presidential palace, the push for a reform of the political class will grow stronger. The first signs seem to appear: the Socialist opposition leader Mircea Geoana spoke about the need for MPs being elected directly and for a much stronger parliamentary discipline and transparency. Even the Premier admitted that "the public agenda is totally different than the politicians seem to be aware of" and that "this month with a suspended president was a waste of time and money". If this is "the beginning of a beautiful friendship" remains to be seen. Campaigning will continue in the next two years, as Romania will elect its 35 members of the European Parliament in autumn this year, followed by local and regional elections next spring and by parliamentary elections in the fall of 2008. The next presidential elections are due in autumn 2009. Foreign observers expected early parliamentary elections after today's referendum. "It will be a great political loss for the ones who voted to impeach the president. In Germany, we would expect early elections, since the people vetoed the Parliament's decision", said Holger Dix, the representative in Bucharest of the German conservative foundation "Konrad Adenauer." But Romania is not Germany…

[I contributed to the today's cover story in The Economist]

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