Gary Kasparov, the man who was a world chess champion for 15 years in a row is trying now to checkmate Vladimir Putin in politics. Wishful thinking? A mirage of the West projected onto Russia? Maybe. Leader of the opposition movement "The Other Russia", Mr. Kasparov admits quite sincerely: "We are not trying to win the elections, we are trying to have elections!"
A guest of honor at the European Ideas Network in Warsaw last week, Mr. Kasparov made some worrying statements:
Putin doesn't run a country, he runs a corporation. He is the ugliest mixture of Karl Marx and Adam Smith. He is not interested in restoring Russia's influence, he's just interested in Gazprom's and Rosneft's influence. Actually, Putin is destroying the Russian state. If we look at the functions of the state, they are gradually transferred to the state companies: Now the Duma voted that Gazprom and Rosneft can have its own armies. These so-called state companies are run by Putin and his KGB-buddies - him being a sort of "capo di tutti capi." And for those doing business with KGB Inc., I remind them that the KGB shareholders are very active shareholders.
In Kasparov's view, the main goal of Russian foreign policy is to raise the price of oil, no matter what - that's why the tensions in the Middle East are so important to Putin:
Selling nuclear technology to Iran is good - you get money and create tensions - selling missiles to Hezbollah through Syria serves the same purpose. North Koreea causes trouble? Excellent! In Putin's view, everything that will raise the oil price is good. But oil money is the main sponsor of terrorism. If we look at a map of the world, most of the dictatorships are based on oil.
Although he admits that the current opposition parties stand no chance in even getting registered for the upcoming parliamentary elections, not to mention the presidential ones, Kasparov seems confident that the Putin regime will collapse before 2012.
If the price of oil falls under 50 dollars a barrel, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to predict that the regime will fall. But even if the price of oil stays high, the regime will collapse. The problem with this regime is that the oil money disappears, you can't find it in Russian banks or investments. You can find it anywhere from Riga til London, but not in Russia. The Russian banking system is shaky, the infrastructure is old and rusty, from Soviet times, pipelines need investments badly, but nothing of this sort is being done. Inevitably, this will lead to a political crisis. Even if Putin puts his man in charge for four or less years, the balance will be disturbed and there will be massive fighting among the different groups. And the fear of the rich and powerful can be transformed into a dynamic energy which could topple the regime.
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Sep 26th, 2007
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When will America get smart and make a maximum effort to reduce its dependence on foreign oil? We could vastly expand nuclear plant construction, open up more domestic oil and gas fields to production, convert our enormous supply of coal to gasoline and tap into Canadian oil sands production and within a decade need a much reduced supply of oil from hostile or indifferent nations such Russian, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc.
The collective flushing sound you would then hear in Moscow, Caracas, Tehran and other capitals would be the sound of corrupt tyrants being sucked down the pipes.
Hi–Very interesting. Brave man, Kasparov. Do you have a link to a transcript or audio for this, or is this from your own notes?
Gus,
More fossil fuels is not the solution. From this point forward, demand will probably always outrun demand, keeping price moving up and up. Not even domestic oil, even if only sold domestically (which will never happen), will solve the problem. We need to completely remove oil as a “strategic commodity” to really change things. The alternative you mentioned can only be considered as a short term solution, something to buy time while other, better alternative energy sources are found.
Gus,
More fossil fuels is not the solution. From this point forward, demand will probably always outrun supply, keeping price moving up and up. Not even domestic oil, even if only sold domestically (which will never happen), will solve the problem. We need to completely remove oil as a “strategic commodity” to really change things. The alternative you mentioned can only be considered as a short term solution, something to buy time while other, better alternative energy sources are found.
(Please forgive the double post. I replaced “demand” with “supply” in the second sentence.)
Perhaps we should refrain from making any more comments. We don’t want to lose Mr. Kasparov, do we?
The question is “How do we get oil back below $50/barrel?” China’s appetite for energy is insatiable, and the most economical oilfields are becoming depleted.
The answer may be something the Navy just picked up the funding on: Polywell fusion.
http://www.strout.net/info/science/polywell/index.html
A Paul Allen-funded startup called Tri-Alpha is also working on a very similar concept, and just got $40M in VC money a few months ago.
BTW, both projects believe they can produce a net-power fusion reactor withing about 10 years.
Ren, you are right. But right now fossil fuels are what we need right now. I think it would be much better if we could replace all our fossil fuel based power plants with nuclear plants, but nobody wants a nuclear power plant near them because of all the irrational and overblown fear generated by the anti-nuke environmentalist. The funny part is nuclear power is much cleaner than those coal plants that we still keep around. And with all the regulations and laws and lawsuits, we have paralyzed ourselves to the point where quickly putting one up would require an act of Congress. And sadly, we know how that is going to go. If not for the party in power being beholden to the very groups that made building a nuclear power plant so difficult in the first place, then for the mere partisanship of not allowing the current administration get credit for something good, this will not happen. And next year doesn’t look good either.
“Putin doesn’t run a country, he runs a corporation.”
This is key to understanding Putin policy. Unfortunately, Kasparov’s confidence that “the Putin regime will collapse before 2012″ suggests that he doesn’t really understand the implications of the truth he’s uttered. Ditto for the folks who worry that Putin will attempt to finagle another term in office, when all too soon, it won’t even matter.
Too few realize that Putin has been preparing to retire as permanent Oligarch-in-Chief for years, even though that ambition is an instantly clarifying lens through which to view his career. He won’t need to be President much longer, or worry about who is, once he consolidates absolute, personal, control of Russia’s oil & gas.
Make it simple to create gasoline/diesel creation plants using Fischer-Tropsch technology and you will create a hard ceiling on oil prices. @$32/gal such plants are quite profitable today but they need an assurance that they will remain profitable at least long enough to recoup their investment and generate a decent rate of return. Given the current environmental issues and the uncertainty of oil prices, we’re cautious in our investments.
Once the Air Force certifies FT fuels for government use, a simple executive order mandating purchase of FT at market prices with a hard floor of $35 for the next two decades will change the rules of the game. The official goal is for the AF to certify all its planes on FT fuels by 2010 (http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123066920). Until the USG can flip over its fuel mix at the stroke of a pen, we’re going to be in a holding pattern. Once we can guarantee a viable market, the coal producers are going to go all in and there’s no market manipulation that is going to drive coal based fuels out of the market.
Yes, I’m aware of the environmental issues. I don’t care. Breaking oil’s stranglehold is one problem, a clean planet is another. If we can only solve one of the two, we should do it instead of having dictatorships holding us hostage over our energy supplies any longer than absolutely necessary. The compromises they force us into compromise our national honor.
I live in Russia and I approve.
Russia equals Gazprom these days, our government has forget that we need to run the largest country in the world with 150m people. We have one of the largest corruption levels in the world, our medicine and education is getting worse every year. Corruption, lies, “1984″-style media and dirty oil/gas business, that’s it.
Expect more and more emigrants from Russia.
Gus,
it will never happen. Any attempt to reduce oil below $50 is going to cost more than the margin compared to current prices.
Sad truth is that you’ll just have to accept the reality.
Mr. Kasparov is a political juggler, his statements are controversial, his arena is the chessboard. He became champion thanks to Soviet Union and its system and now he is fighting a bigger fruit (Russia) from the same root.
He still can’t get over how Deep blue won him! Mr. Kasparov needs to accept the reality on both of these realms (oil supply vs. its demand and human against superchip speed)
He can go against the roots, beware of him!