Transatlantic Politics

Russia’s offensive against Georgia is taking place not only on the ground, but also on the airwaves. Last night, Cold War relic Mikhail Gorbachev blamed  Georgia on Larry King Live  for having started the war by using "sophisticated weapons against a small town, against a sleeping people", in a "barbaric assault".

Some corrections from the head of Transparency International’s office in Tbilisi, Mark Mullen:

Before the foreign media arrived during the present crisis, very little information was available about events in these areas, because the Russian leadership will not allow a sizable neutral force to be present. Georgia does not want to "retake" Abkhazia and South Ossetia . Georgia has consistently said that Russia may be a part of any international force, but Russia consistently says its troops must be the only force present.  The world didn’t notice this until Aug. 9, but the shelling of Georgian villages in South Ossetia was all over Georgian news in the week before Russian troops entered. Last week, a Georgian minister went to Gori and Tskhinvali, begging to discuss a ceasefire with Yuri Popov, the head of the Russian peacekeepers. Popov refused even to speak with him.

Also, on the history of the separatist regions, Mullen notes that "the roots of the tragedy extend to 1921, when the Abkhaz and South Ossetian autonomous republics were set up by the Bolsheviks to punish the three-year-old democratic and Western-looking Georgian republic and to give Russia a ready excuse to invade whenever it wanted to do so."

Georgian president President Mikheil Saakashvili, who also appeared on CNN’s "Larry King Live" Thursday, said he was "profoundly shocked" that Mikhail Gorbachev would use a television appearance "for basically vindicating lies and deceptions."

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Condoleezza Rice spoke yesterday at a press briefing before travelling to Paris and Tbilisi about the importance to grant Georgia the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), an intermediate stage before granting full membership of the Alliance.

One of the reasons for NATO Membership Action Plan and, ultimately, for NATO membership, is that it allows states to overcome longstanding difficulties, differences and conflicts under the umbrella of a collective security organization, defense organization of democracies. I have noted before that had anyone said that you would be able to resolve, for instance, differences between Hungary and Romania, between Bulgaria and Turkey in peaceful ways — no one would have believed it when the Soviet empire broke up. But in fact, under the umbrella of NATO, that has been taking place.
 
And so if you now look across Central and Eastern Europe, one thing that is also very different from just a few decades ago is that the countries that were liberated after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, countries like the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Baltic states and the aspirants – Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and others are now – have made the transition and are making the transition into transatlantic institutions. That allows them both to resolve their differences and to have a reason, a spur, for internal reform and further democratization, the appropriate relationship between civilian and military leaders and so forth and so on. 

That is why Membership Action Plan has been so valuable, and it’s why the United States continues to stand for Membership Action Plan for Georgia and Ukraine.

She also fiercly condemned Russia’s military invasion beyond the South Ossetian borders and alluded to banning Russia from international organizations such as the WTO, the G8 and the OECD.

When you start bombing ports and threatening to bomb airfields and bombing a city like Gori and bringing troops in a flanking maneuver on the western flank of Georgia and tying up the main roads between Georgia – between Tbilisi and Gori, that’s well beyond anything that is needed to protect Russian peacekeepers. And that is why Russia is starting to face international condemnation for what it is doing.

 
This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten its neighbors, occupy a capital, overthrow a government, and get away with it. Things have changed.

Meanwhile, a common naval exercise between Russia, US, France and UK in the Pacific was cancelled, and NATO refused the participation of a Russian vessel in common maneuvres in the Mediterranean. But are these gestures enough to protect Georgia from a brutal takeover by Russia?

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Russia has stopped its military invasion. Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov called earlier for president Saakashvili to step down. French president Nicolas Sarkozy declared, after his meeting with Medvedev, that he finds it "justifiable" for Russia to defend the rights of Russian citizens abroad.

Now president Medvedev says Georgia should be "demilitarized". And these are just the conditions made public.

MOSCOW, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday a full settlement of the military conflict with Georgia was subject to two conditions, includingGeorgia moving its troops to pre-conflict positions.
"We can discuss the question of a definitive settlement if two conditions are met," Medvedev said before meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
"First, Georgian troops should return to their initialposition and be partly demilitarised. Second, we need to sign abinding agreement on non-use of force."

But other consequences we can think of are obviously a brutal regime change, an end to Georgia’s NATO aspirations and  Europe being cut off from the Caspian oil and gas reserves. Also, a much stronger Russia when dealing with European countries. Already Italy, Belgium and now France are caving in to Russia, condemning the "anti-Russian" stance in Europe.

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The Russian troops are marching towards Tbilisi. Georgia could fall by tomorrow morning. According to Stratfor,

"Russian forces do not excel at night fighting, so if there is to be another push it will occur at dawn Aug. 12 with air and then armored strikes on Mtskheta. Should that happen there will be literally nothing to stop the Russians from attacking Tbilisi directly".

President Saakashvili said in a televised address that the situation is "extremely grave" and that the Georgian troops are being regrouped around the capital.

"This is occupation attempt, attempt to totally occupy Georgia, attempt to destroy Georgia. Russia’s goal is to put an end to existence of the Georgian state. We are receiving only moral and humanitarian help from the international community, but we need more than that. We want them to stop these barbaric aggressors.”

He also called on the population to gather outside the Parliament at 3pm on August 12 “to show the enemy that we are united and strong.”

Here are some frequently updated blogs and websites on the Georgian events:

http://russiangeorgianwar.blogspot.com/

http://stateminister.blogspot.com/

http://www.geoee.co.cc/

http://smr.gov.ge/en/home

Also, an online petition to stop Russia’s aggression.

 Update: 

President Bush just called on Russia to reverse the course and accept Georgia’s immediate cease-fire. Moscow is jeopardizing its relationship with the US and the European countries, says Bush. As if Putin cared… One comment to this post pointed out in a "sad smile" the uselesness of an online petition in trying to stop Putin. Seems like Bush’s statements are not much more than an online petition.

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Wake up, Europe! 

Europe should care about the Russian invasion of Georgia if for no other reason than to protect its own interest in reducing energy dependency on Russia. Europe doesn’t care that Georgia is a NATO ally nor that it maintains the 3rd largest contingent in Iraq.  That’s well known (and sad). 

So at least be selfish, Europe!   Guard your vital oil and gas pipelines that cross through Georgian territory (and bypass Russia) which are endangered by the Russian bombings…or risk becoming even more beholden to the Russian Bear.

Ed Lucas, author of The New Cold War, writes in the The Times:

But on top of that is a vital Western interest. The biggest threat Russia poses to Europe is the Kremlin’s monopoly on energy export routes to the West from the former Soviet Union. The one breach in that is the oil and gas pipeline that leads from energy-rich Azerbaijan to Turkey, across Georgia. If Georgia falls, Europe’s hopes of energy independence from Russia fall too.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry reported that Russian aircrafts have completely destroyed the harbor of Poti, in the immediate vecinity of Supsa, a vital oil terminal.

Supsa is vital for Europe, especially since the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (the only alternative route to Russian-controlled oil and gas pipelines) has been disrupted on August 6 in Turkey by the Kurdish militia PKK. Since then, oil transports have been rerouted from Tbilisi to Supsa.

If Europe is serious about its efforts to reduce its energy dependency on Russia, it should better protect its only existing alternative pipelines which transit Georgia.

Update:

The Azeri oil company SOCAR announced it has halted exports from 2 Georgian ports - Batumi (close to Supsa) and Kulevi, a brand new oil terminal inaugurated in May and very close to Poti, the harbor leveled by Russian planes. Now SOCAR is considering rerouting all its oil exports via the Russian pipeline to Novorosiisk, although the capacity of this pipeline is about 10 times smaller than the Baku-Tbillisi-Ceyhan pipeline. So much for the oil exports to Europe, via Georgia and Turkey. Not to mention the grim perspectives for the gas exports that Europe was hoping to get from gas-rich Azerbaidjan and Turkmenistan via Georgia and Turkey.

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