Transatlantic Politics

Following the Russian military invasion, Georgia might soon be left out from the vital energy corridor now trasiting its territory, if Azerbaidjan comes to terms with Armenia over the frozen conflict in the Azeri region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to  Iranian Ambassador to Baku, Naser Hamidi-Zare, Iran is willing to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Iran proposed to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the resolution of the conflict” Hamidi-Zare said, adding that Tehran has held discussion on this issue with both parties of the conflict.

Why the sudden interest in Tehran for this very old conflict? Apart from an obvious image gain if it were to succeed in the mediator role, Iran wants to counter the US influence in the region. Early plans of the now functional Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline took into consideration another route, through Azerbaijan and Armenia, right on the border with Iran (see map). But with the US sanctions over Iran and the frozen conflict right in the middle of the shortest route from Baku to Turkey,, Georgia was then seen as a safer alternative.

But following the brutal "unfreeze" of the 2 Georgian frozen conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, now recognized as independent republics by the Kremlin, Azerbaijan is already hesitant in committing fully its exports through Georgia, rerouting some of these through Russia. And if its conflict with Armenia was to be solved, guess where the shortest route for its large oil and gas supplies would be? Exactly. Through Armenia.

Another key player in this whole energy game is Turkey, so far at odds with Armenia over a historical event it won’t recognize - the genocide against Armenians during World War 1 and over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara being a strong supporter of Azerbaijan.

Diplomatic ties were broken off between Armenia and Turkey in 1993, as a sign of support for Azerbaijan. But in the aftermath of the Georgian conflict, Turkish President Abdullah Gul made a historic visit to Erevan, the pretext being a football game between the two countries. And during the UN plenary in New York on September 26, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan sat down with his Armenian and Azeri counterparts in an attempt to move forward the discussions, so far championed by US envoy to the region Matthew Bryza.

Armenian media hope that Turkey’s increasing distance from the US and closer ties to Russia could work in its favour over the frozen conflict, and could end-up rerouting future Caspian-EU energy links through its territory instead of Georgia. Turkey is favoring both Russian and Iranian gas to be transported by the planned Nabucco pipeline, which is to reduce Europe’s dependancy on Russian gas. The US has so far insisted that Azeri gas and possibly gas from Turkmenistan would suffice for the pipeline.

Yet the Georgian conflict sees regional powers such as Turkey and Iran regrouping and arguably reinforcing their positions on the energy front. Russia can only encourage this.

P.S. According to EUObserver, an alleged Armenian-Russian connection during the Georgian conflict was highlighted in the European Parliament by the chairman of the Foreign Affairs committe Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, who asked EU’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana in a public hearing on 10 September if Russian bases in Armenia were used to launch missiles at Georgia during the conflict. Mr Solana said he could not confirm the information.

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