Transatlantic Politics

German Defense minister Franz Josef Jung pleaded for the US anti-missile defense shield Poland and the Czech Republic agreed to place on their territory, This decision caused sharp criticism from Russia and subsequently made the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, to propose "debating" and maybe limiting the national sovereignty of member states in this regard. But Jung expressed the view that facing new threats form "rogue states" (without naming them), the EU should act preventively, thus justifying the setting up of this defense shield: 

Mr Jung also alluded to Iran's announcement that it can develop uranium on an industrial scale. "Precisely these latest developments also confirm that such protection makes sense",Mr Jung said this week.

"Timely precautions must be taken against the foreseeable increase of the range of offensive missiles of certain problem states, even if it concerns long-term developments," he added.

Jung stressed the fact that the only way to "soothe" Russia's "worries" is to have a common voice within NATO and to back the argument that the shield is meant to PROTECT, not to ATTACK:

"I think it is good that in NATO, as with the NATO-Russia council, we are working together to assuage possible doubts".

Although Jung has voiced support for the US scheme, it is not a view that is universally backed within the German cabinet.

But he did insist it was important for the West "to work on a partnership basis with Russia" on the matter, he added.

Russia should be convinced of the argument so as "to reach an agreement for the protection of populations, for European populations in particular," he said.

Jung also told the European deputies that every possible diplomatic effort should be made "to prevent Iran from equipping itself with nuclear arms".

He added: "It is vital for world peace. The United States, Russia, Europe and China must work together."

President Putin had been very clear on one point, he continued. "It is also in Russia's interests that Iran does not possess atomic weapons."

On April 19, at NATO's Brussels headquarters, the 26 NATO allies — including 21 EU member states — will discuss the anti-missile system in the North Atlantic Council and then with Russia at a NATO-Russia meeting.

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There’s a witty editorial in the yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (requires subscription) about Angela Merkel’s totally softened policy-making. The title "Angela Schroeder" says it all, the current holder of the EU-presidency has actually more resemblance to her predecessor than to what she initially was supposed to stand for: closer US-German relations, stronger NATO involvement, "less government", cutting taxes, economic reform.

Upon assuming the presidency of the bloc in January, Ms. Merkel decided to use this rare opportunity to shape the Brussels agenda for six months to advance the softest of all soft policies: to revive the European Constitution.
(…)The EU’s real challenges are elsewhere: enlargement to the Balkans and Turkey, economic reform, the incomplete single market, terrorism, immigration, energy security to name only a few. Any of those would have proved more challenging for Ms. Merkel — and so much more beneficial for the EU.

Instead of immigration or energy security, Ms. Merkel has given in to the green obsession (despite her center-right orientation) currently so trendy in the EU: gas emission targets that are merely "PR gimmicks" - 20% by 2020 - when just 2 of the 15 old EU member states are on track to meet the Kyoto protocol. On issues like Iran, Merkel has also visibly given in to her Social-Democrat predecessors and members of cabinet. If one year ago, she was comparing Iran’s rhetoric to the Nazis, now she softened the tone and let her Foreign Minister and Schroeder’s former chief of staff do the talking. In Afghanistan, NATO is "fighting uphill" because of her refusal to move the 2700 troops out of the stable north to the more dangerous south.

The latest Merkel disappointment involves American plans to expand its missile defense shield. Poland and the Czech Republic are in talks with Washington to install radar and missile sites to better protect the U.S. and Europe against an Iranian missile attack. To stir up nationalist furies at home and pressure the Poles and Czechs, Vladimir Putin lashed out against the missile plan, knowing full well this limited system could never put a dent in Russia’s own nuclear threat. Germany’s foreign minister immediately rushed to the defense — of the Kremlin. Mr. Steinmeier accused the U.S. of supposedly failing to inform Russia about the missile plans.
Ms. Merkel could have set her foreign minister straight for resuscitating the Schröder-style coddling of Moscow. But she, who grew up in East Germany, only seconded him. Ahead of a trip to Warsaw last week, the chancellor said, "We, and I will say it in Poland, prefer a solution within NATO and also an open discussion with Russia about it." The Germans aren’t so concerned with NATO cohesion in Afghanistan. In this case, the countries directly involved are the ones to decide.

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The Bush administration is slowly recognizing that without Turkey’s full commitment and leadership, there cannot be any real perspective for peace in the Middle East. Yesterday, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee and presented the new "Shared Vision" between the US and Turkey. The new policy suggest a stronger partnership, probably more lobbying in Brussels to get 2014 as an EU accession date, promoted already both by the Turkish government and business groups are already promoting as an accession target date. Energy transport and security is also a key-component in the US-Turkey relationship, and is becoming increasingly important to the EU.

Secretary Rice has instructed me to shift the focus of the U.S.-Turkey relationship from one of simply managing challenges to one where the United States and Turkey are working cooperatively to advance a broad range of issues, putting in action our shared interests and common values. Our shared interests include stability and freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan, democratic reform in the broader Middle East, energy security across Eurasia, and Turkey’s deeper anchoring in Europe.

On the energy security issue, the plan is to further invest in the already existing pipelines that link Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and expand this network to Europe, for instance through the Nabucco natural gas pipeline that would ultimately end in Austria (maybe that will melt down their anti-Turkish feelings a little bit) and the emerging Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline. There are also negotiations for gas exports from Iraq to Europe via Turkey.

As these natural gas projects develop, they will emerge as a Southern Corridor of infrastructure that will offer fair and transparent competition to Gazprom’s massive network of gas pipelines that is in place - and expanding - in Northern Europe. The Southern Corridor can change Eurasia’s strategic map by offering Europe its best hope for large volumes of natural gas supplies that will allow diversification away from a deepening reliance on one supplier or network. Turkey, if it continues to act as a partner with its neighbors, including by reaching a commercially attractive gas transit agreement with Azerbaijan, will be the centerpiece of this grand strategic effort.

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EU-freshman Romania has a great record on  corrupt politics, oligarch-style governing and no respect for the rule of law. As if the 45 years of communism hadn’t been bad enough, 12 years of post-communist ruling under apparatchik Ion Iliescu hampered reforms, perpetuated an oligarch-style ruling and maintained a justice system functioning as an enforcer of political commandos, with no perspective whatsoever to become a truly independent one.

Up until 1999, Romania didn’t even have a clear European perspective. The Helsinki Summit in December 1999 which  granted Romania the status of a candidate country was merely due to pressure from the US after the Romanian President Emil Constantinescu (elected 1996 and facing serious sabotage-attempts by Iliescu, who came back to power in 2000) granted overflight rights to NATO aircrafts in the Kosovo war,

2004 marked a change of government many had already given up hope for. Although the parliamentary elections were won by the same post-communist party (PSD) by a narrow margin, the presidential ones shifted completly. Instead of Iliescu’s Prime Minister and heir, Adrian Nastase and in spite of some fraud attempts, the opposition leader Traian Basescu became the first "orange" president, with a clear anti-corruption agenda, promising to get Romania into the EU by 2007. By then, this was seen as an optimist view, the new Enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn being very tough on corruption and stating clearly that he "would not hesitate" to postpone Romania’s accession by one year. He was exactly the opposite of  his predecessor, Gunther Verheugen, whose ties to the PM  and presidential wannabe Nastase even made him step over his attributions as an impartial EU commissioner: just days before election day, Verheugen predicted that Geoana (by then Foreign Minister) will be the next Prime Minister, thus suggesting that Nastase will win the presidential elections. He even announced an earlier than expected closing of accession negotiations, despite lingering problems in the field of Justice and Home Affairs (high level corruption, lack of independence and accountability), as well as Competition (with state aides being attributed by party loyalty).

The reform of the Justice system and the fight against corruption, especially first cases of high-level corruption, became the main focus of Basescu’s mandate and subsequently of his government, led by  PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu. A bold reformist Justice Minister, Monica Macovei, not politically affiliated, soon became the champion of the reforms,  broadly acclaimed by the European Commission and member states. Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini even stated that "A big part of the success of Romanian accession will have been achieved thanks to Ms. Macovei". The first "big cases" started with former PM Adrian Nastase and his wife, both on trial for corruption, but continued with members of the current government, such as former vice-PM George Copos or former Economy Minister Codrut Seres.

Even if Romania is a EU member since Jan 1st, it still has to carry out the judicial reforms and has a set of "benchmarks" in this regard. The first deadline is soon coming up, March 31st, when Romania must submit to the European Commission a report on its progress. But despite Mrs. Macovei’s commitment, the Parliament has subsequently tried to water down her projects and even voted a motion against her, asking for her resignation. Macovei warned as early as the beginning of January that after EU-accession, Romania’s clampdown on corruption is slowing down, her own PM showing "the wish of non-involvement". A key-agency for investigating conflicts of interests, one of the 4 benchmarks due this year, is being constantly delayed in the Romanian Parliament, whose main occupation right now is to find ways to impeach the President. With very low approval rates in the polls and in a constant open war with the President,  the PM has decided to postpone until autumn the elections for the European Parliament scheduled for May 13. The President himself makes no secret out of his non-approval towards the Premier, engaging in a true media-war in this respect.

For investors and businessmen, this looks rather grim: after the European elections in autumn follow the parliamentary ones in spring 2008 and then the presidential ones in 2009. Time for reforms and clampdown on corruption and red tape? Rather unlikely.

When visiting Bucharest yesterday, US deputy assistant secretary of Commerce Paul Dyck encouraged the Romanian government to continue the reforms. Here are the US’ recommendations:

• First, Romania must continue to exert significant efforts to eradicate corruption’s influence in the economy. This means corrupt officials, at all levels, must be held accountable for their actions.

• Second, intellectual property rights must be enforced and protected. Not only should counterfeit goods be seized, but their producers and distributors must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Only then, will there be a real deterrent to further IPR infringements.

• Third, Romania’s judicial system must be modernized so that judges and prosecutors understand not only the necessity of protecting intellectual property rights, but also of enforcing contracts and operating in a timely and efficient manner. Court decisions must be made in a transparently and in a reasonable amount of time.

• Finally, government decisions, including procurements, should be made in a transparent manner. Laws and regulations should be drafted so that companies and effected parties have adequate opportunity to comment and provide input. 

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This week, Bob Gates was in Munich at the Security Conference, where he hold a pretty tough speech on NATO unity and strength. Here some excerpts:

“The distinction I would draw is a very practical one - a “realistà€™s” view perhaps: It is between Alliance members who do all they can to fulfill collective commitments, and those who do not.
NATO is not a à€œpaper membership,à€œ or a à€œsocial club,à€œ or a à€œtalk shop.à€œ It is a military alliance - one with very serious real world obligations.”

There cannot be any doubt: The world needs a vibrant and muscular transatlantic alliance. The cooperation between our countries must continue and it must deepen. We will need to work hard at it. And we are working hard together in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, and, many of us, in Iraq.

As we face these challenges as rich and powerful democracies, it is worth recalling the words of a leader of a fledgling and weak alliance of disparate provinces with:

• Disrupted economies;
• Differing issues and goals;
• Diverse allegiances;
• Mutual suspicion;
• An army comprised of soldiers often with parochial loyalties, and lacking in equipment and training; and
• With but one strong ally.

George Washington reminded his countrymen - and us - that à€œPerseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.à€œ These should be our watchwords going forward: à€œPerseveranceà€œ and à€œspirit.à€œ And, I should add - à€œunity.à€œ

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